2017-10-27 06:35:00 Fri ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Leon Cooperman, Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, points out that the current Trump stock market rally now approaches normalization. The U.S. stock market is neither cheap nor expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 22x, which is a little higher than the long-run average P/E ratio of 16x to 18x. Most conditions for a bearish stock market correction are not present. For instance, bull markets typically end in overvaluation, whereas, Cooperman shares his wise and upbeat observation that the current stock market rally can continue north for another 15% margin. However, Cooperman suggests several reasons for bear markets:
(1) Inflation should accelerate for substantial interest rate liftoff;
(2) The relative likelihood of an NBER recession becomes real;
(3) The Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and aggressive; and
(4) Some major geopolitical event reverberates across America.
Despite these reasons for bearish stock market normalization, we expect the Trump stock market rally to continue insofar as the Federal Reserve gradually implements the interest rate hike once in December 2017 and then 3 to 4 times in 2018 with target core inflation around 2% to 2.5%, especially in the absence of any clear and present dangers in the quasi-diplomatic relations between the U.S. and *nuclear nations* such as North Korea and Iran.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-09-11 10:22:00 Friday ET

AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools. In recent times, we have completed our fresh website up
2025-06-20 08:27:00 Friday ET

President Trump poses new threats to Fed Chair monetary policy independence again. We describe, discuss, and delve into the mainstream reasons, conc
2018-02-27 09:35:00 Tuesday ET

Fed's new chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for the first time. He vows to prevent price instability for U.S. consumers, firms, and finan
2019-07-27 17:37:00 Saturday ET

Capital gravitates toward key profitable mutual funds until the marginal asset return equilibrates near the core stock market benchmark. As Stanford finance
2019-11-21 11:34:00 Thursday ET

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression. The current U.S. ec
2023-04-28 16:38:00 Friday ET

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives. Peter Schuck (2015) Why