2017-10-27 06:35:00 Fri ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Leon Cooperman, Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, points out that the current Trump stock market rally now approaches normalization. The U.S. stock market is neither cheap nor expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 22x, which is a little higher than the long-run average P/E ratio of 16x to 18x. Most conditions for a bearish stock market correction are not present. For instance, bull markets typically end in overvaluation, whereas, Cooperman shares his wise and upbeat observation that the current stock market rally can continue north for another 15% margin. However, Cooperman suggests several reasons for bear markets:
(1) Inflation should accelerate for substantial interest rate liftoff;
(2) The relative likelihood of an NBER recession becomes real;
(3) The Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and aggressive; and
(4) Some major geopolitical event reverberates across America.
Despite these reasons for bearish stock market normalization, we expect the Trump stock market rally to continue insofar as the Federal Reserve gradually implements the interest rate hike once in December 2017 and then 3 to 4 times in 2018 with target core inflation around 2% to 2.5%, especially in the absence of any clear and present dangers in the quasi-diplomatic relations between the U.S. and *nuclear nations* such as North Korea and Iran.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-03-13 07:34:00 Tuesday ET

From crony capitalism to state capitalism, what economic policy lessons can we learn from President Putin's current reign in Russia? In the 15 years of
2018-06-01 07:30:00 Friday ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predict
2018-09-21 09:41:00 Friday ET

Former World Bank and IMF chief advisor Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global tr
2022-02-15 14:41:00 Tuesday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance Lee, C.M., Shleifer, A., and Thaler, R.H. (1990). Anomalies: closed-end mutual funds. Journal
2019-07-23 09:22:00 Tuesday ET

Harvard economic platform researcher Dipayan Ghosh proposes some alternative solutions to breaking up tech titans such as Facebook, Google, Apple, and Amazo
2020-03-19 13:39:00 Thursday ET

The business legacy and sensitivity of Steve Jobs can transform smart mobile devices with Internet connectivity, music and video content curation, and digit