Leon Cooperman points out that the current Trump stock market rally now approaches normalization.

Amy Hamilton

2017-10-27 06:35:00 Fri ET

Leon Cooperman, Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, points out that the current Trump stock market rally now approaches normalization. The U.S. stock market is neither cheap nor expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 22x, which is a little higher than the long-run average P/E ratio of 16x to 18x. Most conditions for a bearish stock market correction are not present. For instance, bull markets typically end in overvaluation, whereas, Cooperman shares his wise and upbeat observation that the current stock market rally can continue north for another 15% margin. However, Cooperman suggests several reasons for bear markets:

(1) Inflation should accelerate for substantial interest rate liftoff;
(2) The relative likelihood of an NBER recession becomes real;
(3) The Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and aggressive; and
(4) Some major geopolitical event reverberates across America.

Despite these reasons for bearish stock market normalization, we expect the Trump stock market rally to continue insofar as the Federal Reserve gradually implements the interest rate hike once in December 2017 and then 3 to 4 times in 2018 with target core inflation around 2% to 2.5%, especially in the absence of any clear and present dangers in the quasi-diplomatic relations between the U.S. and *nuclear nations* such as North Korea and Iran.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects.

Laura Hermes

2023-02-07 08:26:00 Tuesday ET

Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects.

Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects. Michel De Vroey (2016)

+See More

The McKinsey edge reflects the collective wisdom of key success principles in business management consultancy.

Chanel Holden

2020-11-10 07:25:00 Tuesday ET

The McKinsey edge reflects the collective wisdom of key success principles in business management consultancy.

The McKinsey edge reflects the collective wisdom of key success principles in business management consultancy. Shu Hattori (2015)   The McKins

+See More

Stanford computer science overlords Larry Page and Sergey Brin design Google as an Internet search company.

Charlene Vos

2020-03-05 08:28:00 Thursday ET

Stanford computer science overlords Larry Page and Sergey Brin design Google as an Internet search company.

The Stanford computer science overlords Larry Page and Sergey Brin design and develop Google as an Internet search company. Janet Lowe (2009) Google s

+See More

President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections.

Laura Hermes

2018-11-13 12:30:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections.

President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections. President Trump wants to reach a trade accord with Chinese

+See More

World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system.

Jonah Whanau

2018-08-19 10:34:00 Sunday ET

World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system.

The World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system. Artificial intelligence poses at least a trifecta of major

+See More

America faces income inequality, political polarization, and dysfunctional governance.

Rose Prince

2018-05-17 07:41:00 Thursday ET

America faces income inequality, political polarization, and dysfunctional governance.

Has America become a democratic free land of crumbling infrastructure, galloping income inequality, bitter political polarization, and dysfunctional governa

+See More