2019-04-11 07:35:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
European Central Bank designs its current monetary policy reaction function and interest rate forward guidance in response to key delays in inflation convergence. ECB President Mario Draghi maintains this dovish monetary policy stance as the central bank downgrades economic growth projections for the E.U. trade bloc from 1.7% to 1.1% as of early-2019. As the ECB pushes back the next interest rate hike, Draghi announces new expansionary monetary policy measures. These measures include another financial stimulus program for banks to boost credit supply in the Eurozone. Draghi continues to commit to the price stability mandate to ensure that inflation remains hovers below the 2% target threshold.
Due to weak capital investment, labor force participation, and economic growth in Europe, most stock market analysts expect another major delay in ECB interest rate adjustments until late-2019. In addition to the subpar economic performance of the E.U. trade bloc, ECB senior advisors need to wait for the next resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Halloween Brexit. As Halloween Brexit may come back to haunt the U.K. prime minister, Draghi has to be patient to learn more about what the May administration can deliver as a plausible alternative Brexit deal in October 2019.
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