Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President Trump tweets that he asks the SEC to assess the practical implications of switching to a 6-month corporate disclosure cycle.

John Fourier

2018-08-17 11:45:00 Friday ET

President Trump tweets that he asks the SEC to assess the practical implications of switching to a 6-month corporate disclosure cycle.

In accordance with the extant corporate disclosure rules and requirements, all U.S. public corporations have to report their balance sheets, income statemen

+See More

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-02-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism. As of 2022-2023, global inflation has gradually declined from the peak of 9.8% d

+See More

Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many elite universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for lifelong learners to achieve their medium-term goals for better intellectual focus, immersion, personal growth, and self-improvement.

Charlene Vos

2025-08-09 11:31:00 Saturday ET

Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many elite universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for lifelong learners to achieve their medium-term goals for better intellectual focus, immersion, personal growth, and self-improvement.

Wharton e-commerce entrepreneurship professor Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many top-notch universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for m

+See More

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases.

Dan Rochefort

2018-11-15 12:35:00 Thursday ET

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases.

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases. Buffett sends a positive signal to the stock market with the Berks

+See More

Apple files an appeal to overturn the recent iPhone sales ban in China due to its patent infringement of Qualcomm proprietary technology.

Jonah Whanau

2018-12-17 08:43:00 Monday ET

Apple files an appeal to overturn the recent iPhone sales ban in China due to its patent infringement of Qualcomm proprietary technology.

Apple files an appeal to overturn the recent iPhone sales ban in China due to its patent infringement of Qualcomm proprietary technology. This recent ban of

+See More

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.

Amy Hamilton

2019-03-13 12:35:00 Wednesday ET

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir. Uber expects to complete o

+See More