Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology.

Becky Berkman

2019-12-16 11:37:00 Monday ET

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology.

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology. In recent times, some economists claim that China ma

+See More

President Trump criticizes the WTO and proposes indexing capital gains taxes to inflation for U.S. investors.

Charlene Vos

2018-08-29 10:37:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump criticizes the WTO and proposes indexing capital gains taxes to inflation for U.S. investors.

In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg, President Trump criticizes the World Trade Organization (WTO), proposes indexing capital gains taxes to inflation

+See More

We assess almost all aspects of the current global race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) between both the U.S. and China.

Monica McNeil

2027-10-31 00:00:00 Sunday ET

We assess almost all aspects of the current global race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) between both the U.S. and China.

In the technological race between the U.S. and China, America leads in some strategic sectors from AI large language models (LLM), graphics processing units

+See More

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Saturday ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has

+See More

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Jonah Whanau

2025-06-28 10:39:00 Saturday ET

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal

+See More

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

John Fourier

2018-10-30 10:41:00 Tuesday ET

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

Personal finance author Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends. It

+See More