Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world.

Jacob Miramar

2019-04-13 14:28:00 Saturday ET

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world.

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world. In its recent public bond issuance prospectus, Aramco offers the

+See More

Ben Horowitz shares many hard truths, setbacks, failures, obstacles, difficulties, and disappointments through his rare unique entrepreneurial journey at LoudCloud.

Laura Hermes

2025-05-29 08:25:28 Thursday ET

Ben Horowitz shares many hard truths, setbacks, failures, obstacles, difficulties, and disappointments through his rare unique entrepreneurial journey at LoudCloud.

Serial venture capitalist Ben Horowitz describes many hard truths, lessons, and insights from his entrepreneurial journey of running LoudCloud from a Silico

+See More

The SEC sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a private company.

Amy Hamilton

2018-09-29 12:39:00 Saturday ET

The SEC sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a private company.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C.) sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a privat

+See More

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

John Fourier

2018-10-30 10:41:00 Tuesday ET

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

Personal finance author Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends. It

+See More

A congressional division between Democrats and Republicans can cause ripple effects on Trump economic reforms.

Becky Berkman

2018-11-29 11:33:00 Thursday ET

A congressional division between Democrats and Republicans can cause ripple effects on Trump economic reforms.

A congressional division between Democrats and Republicans can cause ripple effects on Trump economic reforms. As Democrats have successfully flipped the Ho

+See More

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to accomplish more with greater grit, focus, and resilience.

Dan Rochefort

2025-05-21 04:27:10 Wednesday ET

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to accomplish more with greater grit, focus, and resilience.

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to acc

+See More