Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 2)

Chanel Holden

2022-02-15 14:41:00 Tuesday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 2)

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance   Lee, C.M., Shleifer, A., and Thaler, R.H. (1990). Anomalies: closed-end mutual funds. Journal

+See More

Tencent Music Entertainment debuts its IPO on NYSE to strike a chord with stock market investors.

Amy Hamilton

2018-12-19 17:41:00 Wednesday ET

Tencent Music Entertainment debuts its IPO on NYSE to strike a chord with stock market investors.

Tencent Music Entertainment debuts its IPO on NYSE to strike a chord with stock market investors. Tencent Music goes public and marks the biggest IPO by a m

+See More

Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces her Accountable Capitalism Act that would require corporations to consider stakeholder interests.

Fiona Sydney

2018-08-15 14:40:00 Wednesday ET

Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces her Accountable Capitalism Act that would require corporations to consider stakeholder interests.

Senator Elizabeth Warren advocates the alternative view that most U.S. trade deals serve corporate interests over workers, customers, and suppliers etc. She

+See More

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Jonah Whanau

2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sunday ET

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of

+See More

Stock Synopsis: Pharmaceutical post-pandemic patent development cycle

John Fourier

2024-05-05 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: Pharmaceutical post-pandemic patent development cycle

Stock Synopsis: Pharmaceutical post-pandemic patent development cycle In terms of stock market valuation, the major pharmaceutical sector remains at its

+See More

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

Apple Boston

2017-09-19 05:34:00 Tuesday ET

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives head before the Senate Judiciary Committee to explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential el

+See More