Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Fiona Sydney

2019-04-15 08:37:00 Monday ET

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy. Chinese Be

+See More

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation.

Fiona Sydney

2020-01-15 08:31:00 Wednesday ET

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation.

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation. In recent decades, wage growth, economic output, and productivity tend to stagnate as U.S.

+See More

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Olivia London

2019-01-05 11:39:00 Saturday ET

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown. President Trump remains adamant about having to shut d

+See More

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

Daisy Harvey

2018-01-04 07:36:00 Thursday ET

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options. Some recent U.S. Federal Reserve data suggest that both income and wealth inequal

+See More

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections.

Jacob Miramar

2018-10-21 14:40:00 Sunday ET

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections.

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections. Republican senators, congressmen, and

+See More

Mario Draghi declares the ECB agreement on a thorny set of revisions to Basel 3.

Rose Prince

2017-11-25 06:34:00 Saturday ET

Mario Draghi declares the ECB agreement on a thorny set of revisions to Basel 3.

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, heads the international committee of financial supervisors and has declared their landmark agreement o

+See More