Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Most sustainably successful business leaders make a mark in the world, create a positive impact, and challenge the status quo.

Peter Prince

2020-08-12 07:25:00 Wednesday ET

Most sustainably successful business leaders make a mark in the world, create a positive impact, and challenge the status quo.

Most sustainably successful business leaders make a mark in the world, create a positive impact, and challenge the status quo. Jerry Porras, Stewart Emer

+See More

Saudi Aramco aims to initiate its fresh IPO in December 2019.

Charlene Vos

2019-12-13 09:32:00 Friday ET

Saudi Aramco aims to initiate its fresh IPO in December 2019.

Saudi Aramco aims to initiate its fresh IPO in December 2019. Several investment banks indicate to the Saudi government that most investors may value the mi

+See More

We assess almost all aspects of the current global race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) between both the U.S. and China.

Monica McNeil

2027-10-31 00:00:00 Sunday ET

We assess almost all aspects of the current global race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) between both the U.S. and China.

In the technological race between the U.S. and China, America leads in some strategic sectors from AI large language models (LLM), graphics processing units

+See More

With majority control, House Democrats pass 2 bills to reopen the U.S. government without funding the Trump border wall.

John Fourier

2019-01-12 10:33:00 Saturday ET

With majority control, House Democrats pass 2 bills to reopen the U.S. government without funding the Trump border wall.

With majority control, House Democrats pass 2 bills to reopen the U.S. government without funding the Trump border wall. President Trump makes a surprise Wh

+See More

Platform enterprises leverage network effects, scale economies, and information cascades to boost exponential user growth.

Fiona Sydney

2020-05-28 15:37:00 Thursday ET

Platform enterprises leverage network effects, scale economies, and information cascades to boost exponential user growth.

Platform enterprises leverage network effects, scale economies, and information cascades to boost exponential business growth. Laure Reillier and Benoit

+See More

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization.

Amy Hamilton

2020-10-20 09:36:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization.

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization. Shane Cragun and Kat

+See More