Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress.

Daisy Harvey

2017-02-01 14:41:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress.

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress with numerous ambitious economic policies in order to make America g

+See More

It may be illegal for institutional investors to buy-and-hold large equity stakes in a less competitive industry with high market concentration.

Olivia London

2017-11-27 07:39:00 Monday ET

It may be illegal for institutional investors to buy-and-hold large equity stakes in a less competitive industry with high market concentration.

Is it anti-competitive and illegal for passive indexers and mutual funds to place large stock bets in specific industries with high market concentration? Ha

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2020-02-02 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implement

+See More

Artificial intelligence continues to push boundaries for tech titans to sustain their disruptive innovations and competitive advantages.

Chanel Holden

2020-11-01 11:21:00 Sunday ET

Artificial intelligence continues to push boundaries for tech titans to sustain their disruptive innovations and competitive advantages.

Artificial intelligence continues to push boundaries for several tech titans to sustain their central disruptive innovations, competitive moats, and first-m

+See More

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Monica McNeil

2018-07-30 11:36:00 Monday ET

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance. Populist support contributes to Trump's 2016 presidential election victory

+See More

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani.

Jacob Miramar

2018-08-09 16:36:00 Thursday ET

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani.

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani as he rejects a global agreement to curb Iran's nuclea

+See More