Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-28 16:38:00 Friday ET

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives.

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives. Peter Schuck (2015)   Why

+See More

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Jonah Whanau

2025-06-28 10:39:00 Saturday ET

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of December 2019.

Amy Hamilton

2019-12-30 11:28:00 Monday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of December 2019.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube December 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of December 2019: (1) The Trump adm

+See More

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin press the case for GOP tax legislation.

Jonah Whanau

2017-10-15 07:38:00 Sunday ET

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin press the case for GOP tax legislation.

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both press the case for GOP tax legislation as economic relief for the middle-class without substantial t

+See More

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation.

Fiona Sydney

2020-01-15 08:31:00 Wednesday ET

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation.

Anti-competitive corporate practices may stifle U.S. innovation. In recent decades, wage growth, economic output, and productivity tend to stagnate as U.S.

+See More

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Peter Prince

2018-11-27 10:37:00 Tuesday ET

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in mid-November 2018. The latest S.E.C. report shows that the Oracle of Omaha sol

+See More