2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.
From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-05-25 07:30:00 Friday ET

President Trump introduces $50 billion tariffs on Chinese products and new limits on Chinese high-tech investments in America. This new round of tariffs
2019-02-25 12:41:00 Monday ET

Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy in addition to open markets and states. Rajan suggests
2017-05-25 08:35:00 Thursday ET

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on financial deregulation under the Trump administration. This financial deregulation seeks
2020-04-17 07:23:00 Friday ET

Clayton Christensen defines and delves into the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances. Clayton Christensen (2000)
2019-01-07 18:42:00 Monday ET

Neoliberal public choice continues to spin national taxation and several other forms of government intervention. The key post-crisis consensus focuses on go
2023-01-03 09:34:00 Tuesday ET

USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved