Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global trade system.

Fiona Sydney

2018-09-21 09:41:00 Friday ET

Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global trade system.

Former World Bank and IMF chief advisor Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global tr

+See More

Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.

Jacob Miramar

2019-02-11 09:37:00 Monday ET

Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.

Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation. Share repurchases

+See More

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Fiona Sydney

2019-04-15 08:37:00 Monday ET

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy. Chinese Be

+See More

Scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense.

Amy Hamilton

2019-08-30 11:35:00 Friday ET

Scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense.

The conventional wisdom suggests that chameleons change their skin coloration to camouflage their presence for survival through Darwinian biological evoluti

+See More

Business leaders inspire teams to reach heights of both innovation and profitability with great corporate purpose.

Apple Boston

2020-08-26 10:33:00 Wednesday ET

Business leaders inspire teams to reach heights of both innovation and profitability with great corporate purpose.

Through purposeful leadership, senior managers inspire teams to reach heights of both innovation and profitability with great brand identity and customer lo

+See More

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.

Daisy Harvey

2020-07-19 09:25:00 Sunday ET

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota. Takehiko Harada (2015)  

+See More