Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

John Fourier

2018-01-19 11:32:00 Friday ET

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis. These economies experience high stock market valuation,

+See More

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs.

Daisy Harvey

2018-06-10 19:41:00 Sunday ET

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs.

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs in direct competition with Netflix, Am

+See More

Corporate payout management

Fiona Sydney

2022-05-05 09:34:00 Thursday ET

Corporate payout management

Corporate payout management This corporate payout literature review rests on the recent survey article by Farre-Mensa, Michaely, and Schmalz (2014). Out

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Daphne Basel

2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp

+See More

European economic integration seems to have gone backwards primarily due to the recent Brexit movement.

Daisy Harvey

2019-10-19 16:35:00 Saturday ET

European economic integration seems to have gone backwards primarily due to the recent Brexit movement.

European economic integration seems to have gone backwards primarily due to the recent Brexit movement. Brexit, key European sovereign debt, and French and

+See More

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny.

Apple Boston

2019-06-21 13:33:00 Friday ET

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny.

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny. In recent times, Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission have reached an internal agreement

+See More