Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with better intellectual property protection and enforcement.

Apple Boston

2019-05-11 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with better intellectual property protection and enforcement.

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with a better mechanism for intellectual property protection and enforcement. Pr

+See More

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge higher delivery prices on the ecommerce giant.

Laura Hermes

2018-01-03 08:38:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge higher delivery prices on the ecommerce giant.

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge high delivery prices on the ecommerce giant. Trump picks another fight with an

+See More

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen now protects the European circular economy and green growth from 2020 to 2050.

Dan Rochefort

2019-12-22 08:30:00 Sunday ET

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen now protects the European circular economy and green growth from 2020 to 2050.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen now protects the European circular economy and green growth from 2020 to 2050. The new circular economy r

+See More

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month?

Laura Hermes

2017-04-07 15:34:00 Friday ET

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month?

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month? At first glance, this counterintuitive

+See More

World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system.

Jonah Whanau

2018-08-19 10:34:00 Sunday ET

World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system.

The World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system. Artificial intelligence poses at least a trifecta of major

+See More

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.

Monica McNeil

2023-07-21 10:30:00 Friday ET

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide. Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton (200

+See More