The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

Fiona Sydney

2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tue ET

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham Allison suggests in his recent book on Sino-U.S. relations. Through the lens of an ancient Greek military chief and historian, the Thucydides trap refers to the key notion that significant shifts in the relative strength of major powers can be a primary cause of bilateral conflict.

Financial market observers and economic media commentators may characterize superficial frictions and flashpoints as the key root cause of both bilateral animosity and hostility. Nevertheless, the real cause of bilateral conflict, or an open Sino-U.S. trade war, might reflect the fear and frustration of political leaders Trump and Xi on both sides. Allison hence emphasizes that if a Sino-American war is not inevitable, an open trade conflict is likely to emerge as a negative disequilibrium outcome in the medium run.

In recent times, the TIME magazine demystifies the 5 major myths that investors seem to misconstrue as new trends and inflection points in the U.S. stock market. Investor worries and concerns arise from volatile asset price gyrations, pervasive tech stock slumps, inflationary price pressures, faster Fed interest rate hikes and their overall adverse impact on real GDP economic output and employment, and a pervasive regime switch of investor favor from stocks to bonds and alternative investment vehicles such as credit default swaps (CDS) and many other financial derivatives.

TIME demystifies the common myths and puzzles from a fundamental perspective. The Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike at the neutral threshold that helps contain inflation when the U.S. economy operates near full employment. Fiscal stimulus effectuates in the form of both Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures. It takes time for these fiscal measures to drive positive progress in real economic covariates such as real GDP economic output, capital investment, employment, and technological innovation. These economic insights shine new light on the current Sino-American bilateral trade relations and financial market conditions in the broader context of significant shifts in the relative strength of these major powers.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Dan Rochefort

2019-07-21 09:37:00 Sunday ET

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce. Libra will be available to all the 2 billion active users on Fa

+See More

Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities.

John Fourier

2019-08-01 11:33:00 Thursday ET

Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities.

Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities. A recent analysis of 25,800 zip codes for 99% of the U.S. po

+See More

AT&T wins court approval to take over Time Warner with a trademark $85 billion bid despite the Trump prior dissent due to antitrust concerns.

Chanel Holden

2018-06-07 10:36:00 Thursday ET

AT&T wins court approval to take over Time Warner with a trademark $85 billion bid despite the Trump prior dissent due to antitrust concerns.

AT&T wins court approval to take over Time Warner with a trademark $85 billion bid despite the Trump administration prior dissent due to antitrust conce

+See More

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani.

Jacob Miramar

2018-08-09 16:36:00 Thursday ET

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani.

President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani as he rejects a global agreement to curb Iran's nuclea

+See More

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot during the current U.S. stock market rally.

Charlene Vos

2019-03-15 13:36:00 Friday ET

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot during the current U.S. stock market rally.

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends both Caterpillar and Home Depot as the U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comment

+See More

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle.

Daphne Basel

2018-03-19 10:37:00 Monday ET

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle.

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle and thus sets off the alarm bell for artificial intelligence.

+See More