The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

Fiona Sydney

2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tue ET

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham Allison suggests in his recent book on Sino-U.S. relations. Through the lens of an ancient Greek military chief and historian, the Thucydides trap refers to the key notion that significant shifts in the relative strength of major powers can be a primary cause of bilateral conflict.

Financial market observers and economic media commentators may characterize superficial frictions and flashpoints as the key root cause of both bilateral animosity and hostility. Nevertheless, the real cause of bilateral conflict, or an open Sino-U.S. trade war, might reflect the fear and frustration of political leaders Trump and Xi on both sides. Allison hence emphasizes that if a Sino-American war is not inevitable, an open trade conflict is likely to emerge as a negative disequilibrium outcome in the medium run.

In recent times, the TIME magazine demystifies the 5 major myths that investors seem to misconstrue as new trends and inflection points in the U.S. stock market. Investor worries and concerns arise from volatile asset price gyrations, pervasive tech stock slumps, inflationary price pressures, faster Fed interest rate hikes and their overall adverse impact on real GDP economic output and employment, and a pervasive regime switch of investor favor from stocks to bonds and alternative investment vehicles such as credit default swaps (CDS) and many other financial derivatives.

TIME demystifies the common myths and puzzles from a fundamental perspective. The Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike at the neutral threshold that helps contain inflation when the U.S. economy operates near full employment. Fiscal stimulus effectuates in the form of both Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures. It takes time for these fiscal measures to drive positive progress in real economic covariates such as real GDP economic output, capital investment, employment, and technological innovation. These economic insights shine new light on the current Sino-American bilateral trade relations and financial market conditions in the broader context of significant shifts in the relative strength of these major powers.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide.

Daphne Basel

2022-08-30 10:32:00 Tuesday ET

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide.

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide. As long as banks have existed in human history, their managers have realized how not all dep

+See More

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father.

Olivia London

2019-11-01 12:31:00 Friday ET

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father.

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father. This advice reminds her that money just cannot buy happiness. As the eldest of the Kardash

+See More

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit.

Peter Prince

2019-05-15 12:32:00 Wednesday ET

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit.

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit. After the House of Commons rejects Brexit proposals from the May administ

+See More

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Peter Prince

2018-11-27 10:37:00 Tuesday ET

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in mid-November 2018. The latest S.E.C. report shows that the Oracle of Omaha sol

+See More

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable public companies in the world.

Olivia London

2017-05-13 07:28:00 Saturday ET

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable public companies in the world.

America's Top 5 tech firms, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable publicly listed companies in the world. These

+See More

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition.

Fiona Sydney

2019-09-01 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition.

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition. These intricate nuances repres

+See More