The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

Fiona Sydney

2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tue ET

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham Allison suggests in his recent book on Sino-U.S. relations. Through the lens of an ancient Greek military chief and historian, the Thucydides trap refers to the key notion that significant shifts in the relative strength of major powers can be a primary cause of bilateral conflict.

Financial market observers and economic media commentators may characterize superficial frictions and flashpoints as the key root cause of both bilateral animosity and hostility. Nevertheless, the real cause of bilateral conflict, or an open Sino-U.S. trade war, might reflect the fear and frustration of political leaders Trump and Xi on both sides. Allison hence emphasizes that if a Sino-American war is not inevitable, an open trade conflict is likely to emerge as a negative disequilibrium outcome in the medium run.

In recent times, the TIME magazine demystifies the 5 major myths that investors seem to misconstrue as new trends and inflection points in the U.S. stock market. Investor worries and concerns arise from volatile asset price gyrations, pervasive tech stock slumps, inflationary price pressures, faster Fed interest rate hikes and their overall adverse impact on real GDP economic output and employment, and a pervasive regime switch of investor favor from stocks to bonds and alternative investment vehicles such as credit default swaps (CDS) and many other financial derivatives.

TIME demystifies the common myths and puzzles from a fundamental perspective. The Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike at the neutral threshold that helps contain inflation when the U.S. economy operates near full employment. Fiscal stimulus effectuates in the form of both Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures. It takes time for these fiscal measures to drive positive progress in real economic covariates such as real GDP economic output, capital investment, employment, and technological innovation. These economic insights shine new light on the current Sino-American bilateral trade relations and financial market conditions in the broader context of significant shifts in the relative strength of these major powers.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The bank-credit-card model and fintech platforms have adapted well to the recent digitization of cashless finance.

Daphne Basel

2023-11-30 08:29:00 Thursday ET

The bank-credit-card model and fintech platforms have adapted well to the recent digitization of cashless finance.

In addition to the OECD bank-credit-card model and Chinese online payment platforms, the open-payments gateways of UPI in India and Pix in Brazil have adapt

+See More

HPE CEO Meg Whitman decides to step down after her 6-year stint at the technology giant.

Charlene Vos

2017-11-07 09:38:00 Tuesday ET

HPE CEO Meg Whitman decides to step down after her 6-year stint at the technology giant.

HPE CEO Meg Whitman has run both eBay and Hewlett Packard within Fortune 500 and now has decided to step down after her 6-year stint at the technology giant

+See More

Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication

Charlene Vos

2024-04-02 04:45:41 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication

Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication In the U.S. telecom industry for high-speed Internet connections and mobile cl

+See More

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions.

Dan Rochefort

2018-05-10 07:37:00 Thursday ET

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions.

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions in their recent corporate disclosures as of mid-2018. Georg

+See More

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-06-08 13:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inf

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.

Daphne Basel

2019-07-31 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube July 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of July 2019: (1) All 18 systemical

+See More