The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

Fiona Sydney

2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tue ET

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham Allison suggests in his recent book on Sino-U.S. relations. Through the lens of an ancient Greek military chief and historian, the Thucydides trap refers to the key notion that significant shifts in the relative strength of major powers can be a primary cause of bilateral conflict.

Financial market observers and economic media commentators may characterize superficial frictions and flashpoints as the key root cause of both bilateral animosity and hostility. Nevertheless, the real cause of bilateral conflict, or an open Sino-U.S. trade war, might reflect the fear and frustration of political leaders Trump and Xi on both sides. Allison hence emphasizes that if a Sino-American war is not inevitable, an open trade conflict is likely to emerge as a negative disequilibrium outcome in the medium run.

In recent times, the TIME magazine demystifies the 5 major myths that investors seem to misconstrue as new trends and inflection points in the U.S. stock market. Investor worries and concerns arise from volatile asset price gyrations, pervasive tech stock slumps, inflationary price pressures, faster Fed interest rate hikes and their overall adverse impact on real GDP economic output and employment, and a pervasive regime switch of investor favor from stocks to bonds and alternative investment vehicles such as credit default swaps (CDS) and many other financial derivatives.

TIME demystifies the common myths and puzzles from a fundamental perspective. The Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike at the neutral threshold that helps contain inflation when the U.S. economy operates near full employment. Fiscal stimulus effectuates in the form of both Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures. It takes time for these fiscal measures to drive positive progress in real economic covariates such as real GDP economic output, capital investment, employment, and technological innovation. These economic insights shine new light on the current Sino-American bilateral trade relations and financial market conditions in the broader context of significant shifts in the relative strength of these major powers.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell increases the neutral interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% in his debut press conference.

Chanel Holden

2018-03-21 06:32:00 Wednesday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell increases the neutral interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% in his debut press conference.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell increases the neutral interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% in his debut post-FOMC press conference. The Federal Reserve raises

+See More

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

Dan Rochefort

2024-03-19 03:35:58 Tuesday ET

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024 We delve into the 5 major economic themes of the U.S. presidential electi

+See More

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Fiona Sydney

2016-11-09 00:00:00 Wednesday ET

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Universally dismissed as a vanity presidential candidate when he entered a field crowded with Republican talent, the former Democrat and former Independent

+See More

Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence.

Amy Hamilton

2019-03-11 10:32:00 Monday ET

Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence.

Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unic

+See More

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements

Olivia London

2023-12-10 09:23:00 Sunday ET

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements A given country is federal when both of its national and sub-national governments exercise separa

+See More

A Harvard MBA graduate Camilo Maldonado shares several life lessons and wise insights into personal finance.

James Campbell

2019-05-17 15:24:00 Friday ET

A Harvard MBA graduate Camilo Maldonado shares several life lessons and wise insights into personal finance.

A Harvard MBA graduate Camilo Maldonado shares several life lessons and wise insights into personal finance. People can leverage stock market investments an

+See More