Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2019-03-05 10:40:00 Tuesday ET

We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance. First, renting a home can be a smart money move, whereas, buying a home cannot always be a good
2019-06-03 11:31:00 Monday ET

The Sino-U.S. trade war may be the Thucydides trap or a clash of Caucasian and non-Caucasian civilizations. The proverbial Thucydides trap refers to the his
2018-11-27 10:37:00 Tuesday ET

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in mid-November 2018. The latest S.E.C. report shows that the Oracle of Omaha sol
2018-01-08 10:37:00 Monday ET

Spotify considers directly selling its shares to the retail public with no underwriter involvement. The music-streaming company plans a direct list on NYSE
2019-03-11 10:32:00 Monday ET

Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unic
2018-06-09 16:40:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration introduces new tariffs on $50 billion Chinese goods amid the persistent bilateral trade dispute. The tariffs effectively boost cost