Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET

In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%
2019-10-13 16:22:00 Sunday ET

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon. Apple releases t
2018-12-23 13:39:00 Sunday ET

The House of Representatives considers a government expenditure bill with border wall finance and therefore sets up a shutdown stalemate with Senate. As fre
2020-07-12 08:30:00 Sunday ET

The lean CEO encourages iterative continuous improvements and collaborative teams to innovate around core value streams. Jacob Stoller (2015)
2023-11-30 08:29:00 Thursday ET

In addition to the OECD bank-credit-card model and Chinese online payment platforms, the open-payments gateways of UPI in India and Pix in Brazil have adapt
2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wednesday ET

The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with stro