Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2019-04-05 08:25:00 Friday ET

Warren Buffett places his $58 billion stock bets on Apple, American Express, and Goldman Sachs. Berkshire Hathaway owns $18 billion equity stakes in America
2018-04-11 09:37:00 Wednesday ET

North Korean leader and president Kim Jong-Un seeks peaceful resolution and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. When *peace* comes to shove, Asia
2019-09-03 14:29:00 Tuesday ET

Due to U.S. tariffs and other cloudy causes of economic policy uncertainty, Apple, Nintendo, and Samsung start to consider making tech products in Vietnam i
2019-10-01 11:33:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration postpones increasing 25% to 30% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese imports after China extends an olive branch to de-escalate Sino-Ame
2018-07-27 10:35:00 Friday ET

Admitting China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other international activities seems ineffective in imparting economic freedom and democracy to th
2020-07-12 08:30:00 Sunday ET

The lean CEO encourages iterative continuous improvements and collaborative teams to innovate around core value streams. Jacob Stoller (2015)