Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2020-09-10 08:31:00 Thursday ET

Most business organizations should continue to create new value in order to achieve long-run success and sustainable profitability. Todd Zenger (2016)
2018-12-29 09:32:00 Saturday ET

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube December 2018 AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and news
2023-02-21 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Mark Granovetter follows the key principles of modern economic sociology to analyze social relations and economic phenomena. Mark Granovetter (2017) &
2017-08-25 13:36:00 Friday ET

The U.S. Treasury's June 2017 grand proposal for financial deregulation aims to remove several aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act 2010 such as annual macro s
2018-11-29 11:33:00 Thursday ET

A congressional division between Democrats and Republicans can cause ripple effects on Trump economic reforms. As Democrats have successfully flipped the Ho
2023-10-14 10:32:00 Saturday ET

Jonathan Baker frames the current debate over antitrust merger review and enforcement in America. Jonathan Baker (2019) The antitrust paradi