Library

Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.

Description:

This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.

 

Blog+More

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms.

Becky Berkman

2023-11-28 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms.

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms. D

+See More

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.

Rose Prince

2019-02-07 07:25:00 Thursday ET

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism. The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiat

+See More

President Donald Trump criticizes Amazon over taxes and jobs.

Monica McNeil

2017-08-19 14:43:00 Saturday ET

President Donald Trump criticizes Amazon over taxes and jobs.

In a recent tweet, President Donald Trump criticizes Amazon over taxes and jobs. Without providing specific evidence, Trump accuses of the e-commerce retail

+See More

The Trump administration mulls over antitrust actions against Amazon, Facebook, and Google.

Monica McNeil

2018-11-19 09:38:00 Monday ET

The Trump administration mulls over antitrust actions against Amazon, Facebook, and Google.

The Trump administration mulls over antitrust actions against Amazon, Facebook, and Google. President Trump indicates that the $5 billion fine against Googl

+See More

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.

Jacob Miramar

2018-03-03 11:37:00 Saturday ET

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval and constitutional amendment for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with more favorable trade de

+See More

American China-specialists champion the key notion of *strategic engagement* with the Xi administration.

James Campbell

2018-12-11 10:34:06 Tuesday ET

American China-specialists champion the key notion of *strategic engagement* with the Xi administration.

Several eminent American China-specialists champion the key notion of *strategic engagement* with the Xi administration. From the Hoover Institution at Stan

+See More