Library

Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.

Description:

This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.

 

Blog+More

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery.

Jonah Whanau

2019-03-01 13:36:00 Friday ET

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery.

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery. This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy nor

+See More

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks.

Fiona Sydney

2023-04-07 12:29:00 Friday ET

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks.

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks. Timothy Geithner (2014)   Macrofinanci

+See More

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.

James Campbell

2019-10-05 07:27:00 Saturday ET

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property pr

+See More

President Trump ramps up 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports soon after China backtracks on the Sino-U.S. trade agreement.

Rose Prince

2019-05-09 10:28:00 Thursday ET

President Trump ramps up 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports soon after China backtracks on the Sino-U.S. trade agreement.

President Trump ramps up 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports soon after China backtracks on the Sino-American trade agreement. U.S. trade envoy Robe

+See More

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

Dan Rochefort

2024-03-19 03:35:58 Tuesday ET

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024 We delve into the 5 major economic themes of the U.S. presidential electi

+See More

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market.

Daisy Harvey

2018-11-17 09:33:00 Saturday ET

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market.

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as its competitors Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market. The real es

+See More