Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2018-09-09 13:42:00 Sunday ET

Warren Buffett shares his key insights into life, success, money, and interpersonal communication. Institutional money managers and retail investors ca
2025-01-31 09:26:00 Friday ET

The current homeland industrial policy stance worldwide seeks to embed the new notion of global resilience into economic statecraft. In the broader cont
2019-01-21 10:37:00 Monday ET

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube January 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues
2026-10-31 12:38:00 Saturday ET

Today tech titans and billionaires continue to reshape global pharmaceutical investments for both better healthspan and longer lifespan. We discuss, desc
2019-08-07 12:33:00 Wednesday ET

Conor McGregor learns a major money lesson from LeBron James. This lesson suggests that James spends about $1.5 million on his own body each year. The $1.5
2019-04-26 09:33:00 Friday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon defends capitalism in his recent annual letter to shareholders. As Dimon explains here, socialism inevitably produces stagnat