Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations
Author Andy Yeh Alpha
This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.
2019-03-19 12:35:00 Tuesday ET

U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems. These key tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple,
2018-12-03 10:40:00 Monday ET

Bank of England publishes its latest insights into the economic impact of Brexit on British real productivity, capital investment, and labor supply as of 20
2020-10-20 09:36:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization. Shane Cragun and Kat
2018-12-22 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlights the dovish interest ra
2020-05-21 11:30:00 Thursday ET

Most blue-ocean strategists shift fundamental focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space. W. Chan Kim and Renee Ma
2019-10-19 16:35:00 Saturday ET

European economic integration seems to have gone backwards primarily due to the recent Brexit movement. Brexit, key European sovereign debt, and French and