Library

Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.

Description:

This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.

 

Blog+More

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode?

Monica McNeil

2017-11-24 08:41:00 Friday ET

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode?

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode? As its prices skyrocket, bankers, pundits, and investors increasingly take side

+See More

Our fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in support of better stock market investment decisions.

Daphne Basel

2026-02-14 11:26:00 Saturday ET

Our fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in support of better stock market investment decisions.

Our AYA fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in macro finance, political economy, public policy, strategic management,

+See More

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019.

Olivia London

2019-12-28 09:36:00 Saturday ET

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019.

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019. The International Institute of Finance analytic report shows that both China and the U.S. accou

+See More

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment.

Becky Berkman

2024-10-14 11:33:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment.

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment. We are broadly positive about the

+See More

Former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff advocates that artificial intelligence helps augment productivity growth in the next decade.

James Campbell

2018-04-23 07:43:00 Monday ET

Former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff advocates that artificial intelligence helps augment productivity growth in the next decade.

Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff advocates that artificial intelligence helps augment human productivity growth in the next d

+See More

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits.

Joseph Corr

2019-05-23 10:33:00 Thursday ET

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits.

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits. French econo

+See More