Library

Home > Library > Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Credit default swaps and interest rate innovations

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article empirically shows the mysterious and inexorable nexus between credit default swap spreads and interest rate surprises.

Description:

This paper examines the empirical relationship between credit risk and interest rate risk. We use the credit default swap (CDS) spread as our measure of credit risk. Also, we control for the variation in the fair-value spread that combines multiple sources of default risk, including the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio), the loss given default (LGD), and the expected default frequency (EDF). After taking into account the fair-value spread, a liquidity risk factor, and several proxies for the general state of the macroeconomy, we find that the interest rate surprise factor serves as a robust determinant of CDS spread gyrations in both the full sample and most subsamples organized by industry type and credit rating status. Furthermore, we empirically find that the swap interest rate variables convey material information about CDS spread movements above and beyond the Treasury interest rate variables in the vast majority of 2SLS regressions. These empirical results have important implications for the parameterization of interest rate dynamics in the Monte Carlo simulation of economic capital for a typical bank's credit portfolio.

 

Blog+More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Apple (U.S. stock symbol: $AAPL).

Laura Hermes

2025-09-13 12:23:00 Saturday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Apple (U.S. stock symbol: $AAPL).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

Rose Prince

2019-10-29 13:36:00 Tuesday ET

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. This global economic growth projection represents the slo

+See More

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Rose Prince

2018-06-21 10:42:00 Thursday ET

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation. European Union retaliator

+See More

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

Daisy Harvey

2018-01-04 07:36:00 Thursday ET

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options. Some recent U.S. Federal Reserve data suggest that both income and wealth inequal

+See More

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.

Jacob Miramar

2017-05-19 09:39:00 Friday ET

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.

FAMGA stands for Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. These tech giants account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the American stock

+See More

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea.

Peter Prince

2018-04-13 14:42:00 Friday ET

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea.

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea with no regime change as the North Korean dicta

+See More