President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt.

Peter Prince

2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tue ET

President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and producers when they buy goods and services from countries subject to his tariffs. The taxes involve steel and aluminum taxes on western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico as well as another 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

However, math seems to be on the other side of this healthy trade debate.

For the fiscal year 2018, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to be $800 billion. The Office of Management and Budget projects an even higher deficit of $1 trillion in 2019. In other words, it is difficult for the Trump administration to remain fiscally neutral due to large infrastructure expenditures, tax cuts, trade barriers, and capital investment restrictions. The new Trump tariffs may bring in $100 billion in light of stable macroeconomic demand for imports from Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico.

In this negative light, the Trump administration may not be able to curtail the current budget deficit. In order for the Trump administration to balance the U.S. budget, it would require imposing 40% tariffs on almost all $2 trillion imports. The American dream of total national debt elimination thus seems remote.

In the alternative positive light, it is still plausible for the Trump administration to attain fiscal neutrality in the medium term. If the Trump administration successfully boosts 2.5% real GDP economic growth to 3% or above by 2020, the annual U.S. fiscal revenue may increase from $4.5 trillion to $5.4 trillion. The additional $900 billion fiscal intake can then offset the current U.S. budget deficit. In other words, these pro forma calculations suggest that whether Trump can keep his promise to retire national debt depends on medium-term real GDP economic revival.

Overall, 3%+ real GDP economic growth determines whether President Trump can fulfill his economic MAGA mantra.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.
Chanel Holden

2020-06-24 09:32:00 Wednesday ET

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom. Renee Martin and Don Martin (2010

+See More
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.
Joseph Corr

2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.

+See More
Many successful business organizations develop their distinctive capabilities and unique value propositions for strategic reasons.
Jacob Miramar

2020-09-17 12:28:00 Thursday ET

Many successful business organizations develop their distinctive capabilities and unique value propositions for strategic reasons.

Many successful business organizations develop their distinctive capabilities and unique value propositions for strategic reasons. Paul Leinwand and Cesa

+See More
Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that America has much to lose from the current trade war with China for a few reasons.
Joseph Corr

2018-07-13 09:41:00 Friday ET

Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that America has much to lose from the current trade war with China for a few reasons.

Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that America has much to lose from the current trade war with China for a few reasons. First, America is highly dependent

+See More
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.
Andy Yeh Alpha

2020-02-02 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implement

+See More
The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.
James Campbell

2018-03-06 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national economic security concerns and 5G telecom network issues. Broadcom makes microchips fo

+See More