2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tue ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and producers when they buy goods and services from countries subject to his tariffs. The taxes involve steel and aluminum taxes on western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico as well as another 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.
However, math seems to be on the other side of this healthy trade debate.
For the fiscal year 2018, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to be $800 billion. The Office of Management and Budget projects an even higher deficit of $1 trillion in 2019. In other words, it is difficult for the Trump administration to remain fiscally neutral due to large infrastructure expenditures, tax cuts, trade barriers, and capital investment restrictions. The new Trump tariffs may bring in $100 billion in light of stable macroeconomic demand for imports from Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico.
In this negative light, the Trump administration may not be able to curtail the current budget deficit. In order for the Trump administration to balance the U.S. budget, it would require imposing 40% tariffs on almost all $2 trillion imports. The American dream of total national debt elimination thus seems remote.
In the alternative positive light, it is still plausible for the Trump administration to attain fiscal neutrality in the medium term. If the Trump administration successfully boosts 2.5% real GDP economic growth to 3% or above by 2020, the annual U.S. fiscal revenue may increase from $4.5 trillion to $5.4 trillion. The additional $900 billion fiscal intake can then offset the current U.S. budget deficit. In other words, these pro forma calculations suggest that whether Trump can keep his promise to retire national debt depends on medium-term real GDP economic revival.
Overall, 3%+ real GDP economic growth determines whether President Trump can fulfill his economic MAGA mantra.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-10-21 10:35:00 Monday ET
American state attorneys general begin bipartisan antitrust investigations into the market power and corporate behavior of central tech titans such as Apple
2019-06-01 10:33:00 Saturday ET
Top tech firms such as Google, Intel, and Qualcomm suspend Android services to HuaWei as the Trump administration blacklists the Chinese company. HuaWei can
2022-10-25 11:31:00 Tuesday ET
Corporate investment insights from mergers and acquisitions Relative market misvaluation between the bidder and target firms drives most waves of mergers
2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new
2023-02-03 08:27:00 Friday ET
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2023. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma
2017-12-03 08:37:00 Sunday ET
Sean Parker, Napster founder and a former investor in Facebook, has become a "conscientious objector" on Facebook. Parker says Facebook explo