President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt.

Peter Prince

2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tue ET

President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and producers when they buy goods and services from countries subject to his tariffs. The taxes involve steel and aluminum taxes on western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico as well as another 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

However, math seems to be on the other side of this healthy trade debate.

For the fiscal year 2018, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to be $800 billion. The Office of Management and Budget projects an even higher deficit of $1 trillion in 2019. In other words, it is difficult for the Trump administration to remain fiscally neutral due to large infrastructure expenditures, tax cuts, trade barriers, and capital investment restrictions. The new Trump tariffs may bring in $100 billion in light of stable macroeconomic demand for imports from Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico.

In this negative light, the Trump administration may not be able to curtail the current budget deficit. In order for the Trump administration to balance the U.S. budget, it would require imposing 40% tariffs on almost all $2 trillion imports. The American dream of total national debt elimination thus seems remote.

In the alternative positive light, it is still plausible for the Trump administration to attain fiscal neutrality in the medium term. If the Trump administration successfully boosts 2.5% real GDP economic growth to 3% or above by 2020, the annual U.S. fiscal revenue may increase from $4.5 trillion to $5.4 trillion. The additional $900 billion fiscal intake can then offset the current U.S. budget deficit. In other words, these pro forma calculations suggest that whether Trump can keep his promise to retire national debt depends on medium-term real GDP economic revival.

Overall, 3%+ real GDP economic growth determines whether President Trump can fulfill his economic MAGA mantra.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

James Campbell

2023-04-21 12:39:00 Friday ET

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide. Angus Deaton (2015)  

+See More

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan suggests that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites.

John Fourier

2019-05-21 12:37:00 Tuesday ET

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan suggests that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites.

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan shows that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites. When a

+See More

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable public companies in the world.

Olivia London

2017-05-13 07:28:00 Saturday ET

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable public companies in the world.

America's Top 5 tech firms, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable publicly listed companies in the world. These

+See More

The Trump administration weighs the pros and cons of a potential mega merger between AT&T and Time Warner.

Laura Hermes

2018-05-08 13:39:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration weighs the pros and cons of a potential mega merger between AT&T and Time Warner.

The Trump administration weighs the pros and cons of a potential mega merger between AT&T and Time Warner. Recent stock prices show favorable trends for

+See More

What is our asset management strategy?

Andy Yeh Alpha

2025-02-28 11:31:00 Friday ET

What is our asset management strategy?

AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors. As of September 2025, we hav

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2018-12-29 09:32:00 Saturday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube December 2018 AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and news

+See More