President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt.

Peter Prince

2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tue ET

President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and producers when they buy goods and services from countries subject to his tariffs. The taxes involve steel and aluminum taxes on western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico as well as another 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

However, math seems to be on the other side of this healthy trade debate.

For the fiscal year 2018, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to be $800 billion. The Office of Management and Budget projects an even higher deficit of $1 trillion in 2019. In other words, it is difficult for the Trump administration to remain fiscally neutral due to large infrastructure expenditures, tax cuts, trade barriers, and capital investment restrictions. The new Trump tariffs may bring in $100 billion in light of stable macroeconomic demand for imports from Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico.

In this negative light, the Trump administration may not be able to curtail the current budget deficit. In order for the Trump administration to balance the U.S. budget, it would require imposing 40% tariffs on almost all $2 trillion imports. The American dream of total national debt elimination thus seems remote.

In the alternative positive light, it is still plausible for the Trump administration to attain fiscal neutrality in the medium term. If the Trump administration successfully boosts 2.5% real GDP economic growth to 3% or above by 2020, the annual U.S. fiscal revenue may increase from $4.5 trillion to $5.4 trillion. The additional $900 billion fiscal intake can then offset the current U.S. budget deficit. In other words, these pro forma calculations suggest that whether Trump can keep his promise to retire national debt depends on medium-term real GDP economic revival.

Overall, 3%+ real GDP economic growth determines whether President Trump can fulfill his economic MAGA mantra.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley.

Jonah Whanau

2020-04-03 09:28:00 Friday ET

The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley.

The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley. Michael Malone (2014)

+See More

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-14 13:32:00 Friday ET

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Charles Calomiris an

+See More

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-03-31 11:40:00 Sunday ET

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of March 2019: (1) Sargent-Wallac

+See More

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

James Campbell

2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%

+See More

Persistent post-Roman European fragmentation leads to modern economic growth and development.

Jacob Miramar

2023-10-21 11:32:00 Saturday ET

Persistent post-Roman European fragmentation leads to modern economic growth and development.

Walter Scheidel indicates that persistent European fragmentation after the collapse of the Roman Empire leads to modern economic growth and development.

+See More

From crony capitalism to state capitalism, what economic policy lessons can we learn from Putin's reign in Russia?

Jonah Whanau

2018-03-13 07:34:00 Tuesday ET

From crony capitalism to state capitalism, what economic policy lessons can we learn from Putin's reign in Russia?

From crony capitalism to state capitalism, what economic policy lessons can we learn from President Putin's current reign in Russia? In the 15 years of

+See More