2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tue ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and producers when they buy goods and services from countries subject to his tariffs. The taxes involve steel and aluminum taxes on western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico as well as another 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.
However, math seems to be on the other side of this healthy trade debate.
For the fiscal year 2018, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to be $800 billion. The Office of Management and Budget projects an even higher deficit of $1 trillion in 2019. In other words, it is difficult for the Trump administration to remain fiscally neutral due to large infrastructure expenditures, tax cuts, trade barriers, and capital investment restrictions. The new Trump tariffs may bring in $100 billion in light of stable macroeconomic demand for imports from Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico.
In this negative light, the Trump administration may not be able to curtail the current budget deficit. In order for the Trump administration to balance the U.S. budget, it would require imposing 40% tariffs on almost all $2 trillion imports. The American dream of total national debt elimination thus seems remote.
In the alternative positive light, it is still plausible for the Trump administration to attain fiscal neutrality in the medium term. If the Trump administration successfully boosts 2.5% real GDP economic growth to 3% or above by 2020, the annual U.S. fiscal revenue may increase from $4.5 trillion to $5.4 trillion. The additional $900 billion fiscal intake can then offset the current U.S. budget deficit. In other words, these pro forma calculations suggest that whether Trump can keep his promise to retire national debt depends on medium-term real GDP economic revival.
Overall, 3%+ real GDP economic growth determines whether President Trump can fulfill his economic MAGA mantra.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-07 12:33:00 Wednesday ET
Conor McGregor learns a major money lesson from LeBron James. This lesson suggests that James spends about $1.5 million on his own body each year. The $1.5
2018-01-23 06:38:00 Tuesday ET
Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase establish a new company to reduce U.S. employee health care costs in negotiations with drugmakers, doctors, a
2023-07-07 10:29:00 Friday ET
Louis Kaplow strives to find a delicate balance between efficiency gains and redistributive taxes in the social welfare function. Louis Kaplow (2010)
2019-03-19 12:35:00 Tuesday ET
U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems. These key tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple,
2019-11-05 07:41:00 Tuesday ET
The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China. This interim partial trade deal represents the first phase of a comprehe
2019-12-30 11:28:00 Monday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube December 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of December 2019: (1) The Trump adm