The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself with better interpersonal communication.

Daphne Basel

2017-12-17 11:41:00 Sunday ET

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself with better interpersonal communication.

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself. Learning about oneself empowers him or her to lead a meaningful life. This valuable inv

+See More

Harvard financial economist Alberto Cavallo empirically shows the recent *Amazon effect* of faster retail price adjustments.

Amy Hamilton

2018-08-23 11:34:00 Thursday ET

Harvard financial economist Alberto Cavallo empirically shows the recent *Amazon effect* of faster retail price adjustments.

Harvard financial economist Alberto Cavallo empirically shows the recent *Amazon effect* that online retailers such as Amazon, Alibaba, and eBay etc use fas

+See More

We can learn much from the frugal habits and lifestyles of several billionaires.

Joseph Corr

2016-10-01 00:00:00 Saturday ET

We can learn much from the frugal habits and lifestyles of several billionaires.

We can learn much from the frugal habits and lifestyles of several billionaires on earth. Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, still l

+See More

Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirms with her successor Jerome Powell the final interest rate hike in December 2017.

Joseph Corr

2017-12-14 12:41:00 Thursday ET

Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirms with her successor Jerome Powell the final interest rate hike in December 2017.

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% to 1.5% as FOMC members revise up their GDP estimate from 2% to 2.5

+See More

Lean enterprises often try to incubate disruptive innovations with iterative continuous improvements and inventions over time.

Joseph Corr

2020-06-03 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Lean enterprises often try to incubate disruptive innovations with iterative continuous improvements and inventions over time.

Lean enterprises often try to incubate disruptive innovations with iterative continuous improvements and inventions over time. Trevor Owens and Obie Fern

+See More

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

Rose Prince

2018-12-01 11:37:00 Saturday ET

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

As the solo author of the books Millionaire Next Door and Richer Than Millionaire, William Danko shares 3 top secrets for *better wealth creation*. True pro

+See More