The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Microsoft (U.S. stock symbol: $MSFT).

Monica McNeil

2025-09-16 09:27:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Microsoft (U.S. stock symbol: $MSFT).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Amy Hamilton

2019-04-30 19:46:00 Tuesday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube April 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of April 2019: (1) Our proprietary

+See More

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc.

James Campbell

2018-10-25 10:36:00 Thursday ET

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc.

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc. U.S. corporate profit growth remains high a

+See More

New Keynesian monetary policy framework

Monica McNeil

2023-09-21 09:26:00 Thursday ET

New Keynesian monetary policy framework

Jordi Gali delves into the science of the New Keynesian monetary policy framework with economic output and inflation stabilization. Jordi Gali (2015)

+See More

Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet, talk, and shake hands in the historic U.S.-North-Korean peace summit in Singapore.

Daphne Basel

2018-06-06 09:39:00 Wednesday ET

Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet, talk, and shake hands in the historic U.S.-North-Korean peace summit in Singapore.

Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet, talk, and shake hands in the historic peace summit between America and North Korea in Singapore. At the start of the bila

+See More

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization.

Becky Berkman

2019-10-23 15:39:00 Wednesday ET

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization.

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization. The Business Roundtable offers this statement

+See More