2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-06-28 10:39:00 Saturday ET
Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal
2018-11-25 12:37:00 Sunday ET
The Chinese administration delivers a written response to U.S. demands for trade reforms. This strategic move helps trigger more formal negotiations between
2019-08-08 09:35:00 Thursday ET
Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors. In collaboration with former Web.com CEO Jeff Stibel, the NBA champion invests
2019-11-01 12:31:00 Friday ET
Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father. This advice reminds her that money just cannot buy happiness. As the eldest of the Kardash
2019-09-21 09:25:00 Saturday ET
President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit with respect to Sino-U.S. trade conflict resolution, global climate change, containment fo
2023-08-21 12:25:00 Monday ET
Steven Shavell presents his economic analysis of law in terms of the economic outcomes of both legal doctrines and institutions. Steven Shavell (2004)