The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

Daisy Harvey

2018-03-27 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current trade war between America and China. As America imposes

+See More

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit.

Peter Prince

2019-05-15 12:32:00 Wednesday ET

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit.

The May administration needs to seek a fresh fallback option for Halloween Brexit. After the House of Commons rejects Brexit proposals from the May administ

+See More

To secure better E.U. economic arrangements, Jeremy Corbyn encourages Labour legislators to back a second referendum on Brexit.

Olivia London

2019-06-17 11:25:00 Monday ET

To secure better E.U. economic arrangements, Jeremy Corbyn encourages Labour legislators to back a second referendum on Brexit.

To secure better economic arrangements with European Union, Jeremy Corbyn encourages Labour legislators to back a second referendum on Brexit. In recent tim

+See More

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs.

Daisy Harvey

2018-06-10 19:41:00 Sunday ET

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs.

Apple enters a multi-year content partnership with Oprah Winfrey to provide new original online video and TV programs in direct competition with Netflix, Am

+See More

These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on investment management.

Joseph Corr

2017-06-27 05:40:00 Tuesday ET

These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on investment management.

These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on financial management, innovation, and entrepreneurship. For financial

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Texas Instruments (U.S. stock symbol: $TXN).

Monica McNeil

2025-10-13 12:32:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Texas Instruments (U.S. stock symbol: $TXN).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More