2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-11-07 09:38:00 Tuesday ET
HPE CEO Meg Whitman has run both eBay and Hewlett Packard within Fortune 500 and now has decided to step down after her 6-year stint at the technology giant
2019-01-07 18:42:00 Monday ET
Neoliberal public choice continues to spin national taxation and several other forms of government intervention. The key post-crisis consensus focuses on go
2019-11-15 13:34:00 Friday ET
The Economist offers a special report that the new normal state of economic affairs shines fresh light on the division of labor between central banks and go
2019-09-23 12:25:00 Monday ET
Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen contribute to a Wall Street Journal op-ed on monetary policy independence. These former Federal Reserve chiefs unit
2018-11-13 12:30:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections. President Trump wants to reach a trade accord with Chinese
2019-11-07 14:36:00 Thursday ET
America expects to impose punitive tariffs on $7.5 billion European exports due to the recent WTO rule violation of illegal plane subsidies. World Trade Org