The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems.

Monica McNeil

2019-03-19 12:35:00 Tuesday ET

U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems.

U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems. These key tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple,

+See More

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.

Monica McNeil

2023-03-07 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Mervyn King (2017) &nb

+See More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Jacob Miramar

2018-12-07 11:35:00 Friday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold. NYSE and NASDAQ share prices rebo

+See More

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-01-11 09:26:00 Wednesday ET

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved our U.S

+See More

President Trump refreshes American fiscal fears and sovereign debt concerns through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Jacob Miramar

2025-06-21 05:25:00 Saturday ET

President Trump refreshes American fiscal fears and sovereign debt concerns through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

President Trump refreshes American fiscal fears, worries, and concerns through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimat

+See More

Tax policy pluralism for addressing special interests

Monica McNeil

2023-12-08 08:28:00 Friday ET

Tax policy pluralism for addressing special interests

Tax policy pluralism for addressing special interests Economists often praise as pluralism the interplay of special interest groups in public policy. In

+See More