The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggests that corporations should make a positive contribution to society apart from boosting the bottomline.

Olivia London

2018-01-09 08:33:00 Tuesday ET

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggests that corporations should make a positive contribution to society apart from boosting the bottomline.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink emphasizes his key conviction that public corporations should make a positive contribution to society apart from boosting the botto

+See More

CBS and its special committee of independent directors have decided to sue the Redstone controlling shareholders.

Daisy Harvey

2018-05-09 08:31:00 Wednesday ET

CBS and its special committee of independent directors have decided to sue the Redstone controlling shareholders.

CBS and its special committee of independent directors have decided to sue the Redstone controlling shareholders because these directors might have breached

+See More

Warren Buffett invests in American stocks across energy, transport, and finance etc.

Daphne Basel

2017-07-07 10:33:00 Friday ET

Warren Buffett invests in American stocks across energy, transport, and finance etc.

Warren Buffett invests in American stocks across numerous industries such as energy, air transport, finance, technology, retail provision, and so forth.

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of AT&T (U.S. stock symbol: $T).

Apple Boston

2025-10-05 17:31:00 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of AT&T (U.S. stock symbol: $T).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

World politics, economics, and new ideas from the Psychology of Money written by Morgan Housel

Daphne Basel

2023-10-19 08:26:00 Thursday ET

World politics, economics, and new ideas from the Psychology of Money written by Morgan Housel

World politics, economics, and new ideas from the Psychology of Money written by Morgan Housel We would like to provide both economic and non-economic th

+See More

Corporate investment management

Charlene Vos

2022-04-15 10:32:00 Friday ET

Corporate investment management

Corporate investment management  This review of corporate investment literature focuses on some recent empirical studies of M&A, capital investm

+See More