2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-03-05 07:34:00 Monday ET

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade etc. As an early technology adopter, Thiel invests in Fa
2017-09-19 05:34:00 Tuesday ET

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives head before the Senate Judiciary Committee to explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential el
2017-04-25 06:35:00 Tuesday ET

This nice and clear infographic visualization helps us better decipher the main memes and themes of President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office.
2019-11-23 08:33:00 Saturday ET

MIT financial economist Simon Johnson rethinks capitalism with better key market incentives. Johnson refers to the recent Business Roundtable CEO statement
2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thursday ET

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rat
2019-06-23 08:30:00 Sunday ET

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 affects many millennials as they bear the primary costs of college tuition, residential demand, health care, and childcare